The Forex Blogosphere - Discovering the Forex World

Connected and Mobile Ready

2011-12-20T11:02:00.002-05:00

In addition to the Unity Desktop I'm using with Forex trades. I've also coupled that with my Android devices: my Galaxy phone and Android Tablet which I really love having away from the desktop. What you see on your Android is basically what you see on your Ubuntu desktop. With a good Internet connection, navigating through the desktop is smooth and you select and click the desktop options with a touch, just as with other Apps on your device. It works very well.

I've successfully got VNC and SSH connected yesterday with Ubuntu server. I used Connectbot on the Android tablet, and what SSH does is logs you in to Ubuntu securely. You then redirect the port to a local port. When connecting with VNC, instead of traffic directly returning to the Android unencrypted as normal. The redirected local signal created by the SSH port forwarding sends the data back in an SSH encrypted format. No noticeable change in speed and performance. Just another layer of security is added so the hacks trying to get in between your traffic has another puzzle to figure out if they try to steal your data. Nothing is 100%, but you can feel a little more confident with SSH and its encryption. SSH has been around a long time. I used to just use Telnet to log into remote Unix servers, but why not use the tride and true SSH technology when you can do the same thing with even better security.

Forex and Linux Together 2011-2012

2011-12-20T10:29:00.010-05:00

For late 2011, I've switched over to Ubuntu's Unity desktop. At first it was totally annoying and I couldn't figure out how Linux Ubuntu could try to change and ruin an already great system. As I've used more of the features, I've really liked how Unity and 3d has used the window management. I found it extremely helpful being able to split windows and organize them where it was simple and efficient. If this system ever goes to tablet computing, I can see how wonderful it would be like it's close relative Android which I also use and love.

This is my current Forex desktop, and at any given trade day, I could have many windows and desktops organized and sorted so I can collect and filter information, as well as mix with other non trade related activity, the organization is the best part. As for Metatrader 4, it still runs fine using wine. The only trick is some indicators and EA's will crash. I've recompiled some of these EA's and indicators, and this solved the crash. I can have Meta 4 run all day and night, and it will be stable, no Force Close or any annoying blips. So overall good job by the Linux camp. Safe, secure and practical, everything you would expect and want from a good stable system.

Dec 12-13 Eur/$ Short Cover on Divergence

2011-12-13T06:27:00.004-05:00

This is yesterdays chart of the 4HR we used to cover Eur/$ Shorts, momentum running out of steam of what we believe is the 3rd Wave. Looking for a correction, after that's complete we'll get back Short. Turned out to be a good decision so far. From todays low the Euro bounced +70 pips, so certainly theres a little steam running out on the downside. Long term though down trend is firmly intact.

Oct 28, 2009 - Riding the D-Train

2009-10-28T15:32:00.004-04:00

Point and Click to Enlarge

This is my hard right edge indicatorless chart. Whether or not this fails we may not know for a few weeks but at this point.
This last week of Oct 2009 we see a turn in the grey zone, an area we expected the top to complete.
Unless something dramatic happens tomorrow and the rest of the week, the downturn has began, and next two weeks we'll be sure when our fractal forms. As long as we don't go higher than 1.5063 next week, we have our top.
The strength of the downward move will first be tested at the 38% level which is a sizable 500 pip move. If we have a good bounce here, the Euro bull move is relatively intact and I'll cover.
If 38% gets taken out with momentum then we expect a test of the 50%. Even if we get to the 50% level, it's a substantial move a good 1000 pips and I wouldn't complain.
This chart alone will let us know how much(if any) the S&P and Dow will crack
Just from viewing this chart, we can at least be cautious not to be Long Euro for now, and take advantage of grabbing some pips on this next wave down.

Penguin Power

2009-04-04T10:06:00.032-04:00

Last news filled NonFarmPayroll week was a no trade week for me so I spent the majority of the time tweeking and twittering with my computers. I normally use 1 desktop and 2 laptops, but as always, that can always change depending on what's working and what's not broken.

Since the early 1990's, when the early versions of the Linux(namely Slackware) operating system came out, I've dabbled with this OS throughout my college days. I was always a Unix junkie programming on Sun computers with C++ and other stuff to do my projects. I'm happy to see how Linux has come so far with their desktops. Back then, and even just a few years ago, the typical PC user just wouldn't be able to use this OS,it was just way too over the top with complexity, and with MS Windows so dominant and user friendly, Linux was just not going to be a player on desktops. I have to admit though that I was a rebel against the Microsoft machine . I hated that most of the software I needed to use was Windows only. I honestly would not use MS Windows if I didn't have to. Though I do respect Apple and Macs very much(Apple and Atari were my first computers in 1980), I'm not a big fan of their prices. So for this short article and rant, I'll just discuss why I keep a Linux powered machine available.

As you can see(point click to enlarge) the desktop is pretty slick. This desktop uses a Windows manager called IceWM. I'm sure Microsoft will eventually weave this idea into their future OS's, they love to borrow great ideas and call it innovation, just ask Mac users. With many Linux desktops, particularly Ice, you can flip through several desktops. This particular session I had 4 desktops. Usually I keep Metatrader on desktop #1 along with News sites. Desktop #2 I'll have non-Fx websites(naughty and nice, haha), desktop #3 I may have music or DVD's when the market is doing nothing and I want to slack off and do nothing.

Let me list a few of the new exciting things that Linux systems have included in the past few years, things that I believe have made it more useful.

Metatrader 4.0 works- Yes hurray! What FX user doesn't like Meta? I've used it for a few years. It's small, compact, fast, used by many brokers, the charting is great, and at least to me, there aren't many other applications better. Meta's only flaw is you can't access it unless you have it installed on the computer you're using, and unless you have a version of Windows. With the developement of Wine though under Linux, some Windows applications do run under Linux. In the past, Wine was very shaky, it could crash at any time, and it made trying to run Windows programs rather annoying. Things have improved though, and I'm glad to say Metatrader works pretty well on my Linux machine, just as it does on my Smartphone. It looks and feels just like the Metatrader on my Windows Vista computer.

So why would I waste time running and installing Linux when I'm going to trade with Metatrader that was made only for Windows? Well here's the other cool thing Linux has come up with the past few years, and why as a once upon a time programmer, I really lost respect for MS Windows. I can make a copy of Metatrader on a Thumbdrive and using a Thumbdrive or a copy of Linux on a CD, I can run Linux on another computer without having to install it.

Here's a simple example/scenario: I'm away on a holiday with a buddy of mine fishing. I don't have my laptop and I love seeing the FX markets with a Metatrader chart. My buddy has his laptop with internet access. Instead of downloading Metatrader and having to install it on my friends computer, I just carry a Thumbdrive (1Gig or 2Gig) with a copy of Linux and Metatrader on it. Try copying Windows XP or Vista on a Thumbdrive. I can store a complete Linux Windows Operating system with my fishing lures, how crazy and cool! The power of Linux is how small it is, and how robust it is compared to MS OS systems, which is just a massive memory eating beast. An almost full featured desktop with many Internet applications can be loaded into just 512MB or RAM. I could even run that laptop without a harddrive because the OS is loaded into memory and doesn't need to access the harddrive to function. So now with just a Thumbdrive, I can run and trade with Metatrader. My desktop is there as well, my Browser has all its FX bookmarks, some of my movies, spreadsheets, anything I can store on that Thumbdrive I can access along with some nice Linux applications. I haven't tried any Metaexperts and autotrading with it, I don't usually need them, and in the past I only used them for fun, I don't doubht they'd work just as well with Linux. I could run Meta with Linux for hours without my problem, no blips, drops or anything disruptive.

My other main beef with MS Windows is Security. Lets be frank, MS OS Securty sucks, my 2 year old nephew can break a Windows system by just deleting a few files, wipe out those files and you have blue screens of death or bootup issues galore. It shouldn't be any surprise that when you surf the web and you get redirected here and there to shadowy websites, you are picked apart by hackers. Yes Linux crashes too and it can have its own quirks, but I'll wager I can go to websites which will inundate a Windows computer with spyware, malware and crapware and almost be bulletproof with my Linux. I'm sure hackers probably can use a virus to lag computer memory,but unlike Windows, with Linux, you just reboot the machine and you're cool, no trace of the virus will be in memory, and most important, the harddrive doesn't get wrecked by the virus, because Linux will be run on RAM, not necessarily the harddrive, and above all, most of the viruses out there were designed for Microsoft, probably by geeks who like me, aren't too fond of MS.

Flash: For ThinkorSwim traders, I'm pleased to say that TOS's fine trading platform also works under Linux, without much tweaking. So here's another great addition made available to the Linux platform, there are probably others, it's just Meta and TOS I use more on a daily basis.

I can go on and on, but in simple terms, I can trade with a non MS Windows machine now thanks to the wonderful developers of Linux, who really developed software for the love of it. The support in the Linux community is great, it's almost like some FX communities, where people put their heads together to try to solve a problem. If you're adventurous with computing like I always have, there's new systems and updates all the time with Linux, every few months, sometimes even weeks, developers put a new desktop sometimes an entire operating system out there to download for free. If you want to wait a few years, say about 10 or so, that's probably when you'll see other Operating systems come around and be more mainstream. I'm just glad that the computing world is becoming more open to alternative operating systems.

The Euro Picture-It's all about Divergence

2009-03-13T18:42:00.005-04:00

Simple chart how I see the short to medium term trend. As mentioned the Bullish Divergence has been forming for close to a month. This pair has been consolidating since with unspectacular moves.
Ideally I would probably stay out of this trade next time. I've been bullish on this pair a few weeks because of this divergence.
Currently holding some Euro longs @ 1.2600 with some lots added along the way.
The cross at 13ema was significant, the next biggie is the 50ema which hangs near 1.300. A good push through and I see a good move upwards.
The weekly chart is particularly telling, it is possibly signaling the end of the strong move down for the Euro. Of course that can take months to confirm. Too many trades till that point so lets keep it simple, and stay cautiously bullish short term, medium-long still slightly bearish. Lets see what the 1.300 reveals and take it from there.

Uncharted Territory Micro Management

2009-02-17T20:32:00.032-05:00

First point, this is posted as a result to some offline email exchange debates I had with an anonymous somewhat newbie trader buddy I know through some forums.
His obsession with funding huge amounts,leveraging to the hilt and wildly punting trades without any technical or fundamentally sound reason is why I just said, screw the chart(even though this has been already charted on this blog) it's about numbers, results and risk management.
This is a live statement, not a churned, curved fitted after the fact , hard right edge demo.
Highlighted are the stats that matter most to me. The position size averages about 4 micro lots, yes there's 2 trades that are 1.5 mini in size, but you can see, there are trades as small as 1 teeny weeny micro that made hundreds of pips, so more bang for your micro bucks.
The statments stats are typical of other statments I can pull out the past 6 months, the most important stats to me I circled and is what I look for in a nice robust methodology.

Back to the important points:

You'll notice that the timeframe of the trades is about a week or so, not a whole lot of trades. You certainly have to pick your points, you don't get more money for trading more, more than likely you'll get clipped especially with high volitility. This particular week wasn't real high vol, but it wasn't a cakewalk either.
The profit factor is usually what my eyes see first, a 3 or 4 is considered great by most people, I'd be happy with 4 and there is no doubht over time a 4 factor will grow your account, a 17, well who wouldn't love that, but realistically, to maintain this 17 factor ain't gonna happen over time, so take a 3 or 4 and be content, and run with it.
Drawdown, to me under 10% is pretty good, I've averaged less than 5%, but again, I don't day trade and am very selective if I choose a breakout.
Notice most trades are shorts, well that was the trend.There were a few countertrend longs that made a pretty profit.
Notice that the Open Trades are Long Countertrend trades. Sometimes you have to take these risks, I personally don't like countertrend. When you're trading against the trend, you have to really have to be on top and be able to bail or scale down, even if you're too early. Bottom line, pile on the position when the trend reveals itself, in a countertrend, you'll know whether you're right in a very short period of time. If you're wrong, it's like jumping off of a train, the momentum will build and you'll get hurt even if u jump off.
I trade CAD, AUD sometimes, but mainly stay with EUR, GBP and JPY. CAD could have some huge moves sometimes, but the trend could flip on a dime and drive you nuts. To me all pairs do not behave the same, I believe this, so trend is what you have to see in any instrument.
Finally, consistancy. Being 50% correct is just not good enough for me, even with a pretty good profit factor, being only right 1/2 the time would just affect the mental aspect of my trading, I'll flip a coin if I want 50/50 odds. I want 70% or at least strive for that, and that's been about my average through many statements Ive cycled through, if i approach 50% then I knowI'm out of wack, whether the account reads profit or not, sometimes I don't even look at the profit, I look at how limited I made the risk, and how I rode the momentum when it revealed itself and confirmed the trend.
100% return account I thought was impossible to achieve, especially a small account, it's possible if you don't give back profits, I've personally seen 300%, but like many good traders you'll hear, the more you make, you still need to be carefull of leverage, notice the margin on these trades, not particularly high.
Ok, that ends my debate rant, so remember to always ask who you debate with to show you the results, not the demos, the predictions and assumptions.
Finally, small ain't always bad, if you can grow a micro, you can grow a mini, and a standard, of course the stress level will be different, so trade according to your blood pressure. If your broker snarls at you for converting your mini to micro, please don't yack at me, haha. Good Luck.

Week 1 Feb 2009 ECB & BOE Non Farm

2009-02-07T08:40:00.006-05:00

A news packed week where we saw good movement in the Pound and Cad. No surprise from the ECB and BOE with respect to rate cuts. Rates came in line with what was forecasted, however unlike the Pound, the Euro really floundered and did not take a dive as you may have expected.
Not being a big fan of trading fundamentals, I think there are 2 important things I've observed. 1) The Euro is moving(though not perfectly) with equity markets. The uncertainty of the Stimulus shows on the charts. We didn't have a definitive outcome as to the details of this package, and as the Euro approached key support levels, the momentum fizzled. 2) Gold had a few days where it lost double digits, however at $900+/ounce, it is suprisingly resilient considering the Dollar has been strong.
Getting back to the technicals, though my medium term bias is still bearish for the Euro, for the short term, at least early next week, there is some upside potential. The 1.2700 handle should have been taken out but held firm, as risk aversion subsides, we'll have a few good days with the Dow and Euro getting a pop upwards, then when reality sinks in and the feel good spending subsides, the Dow and Euro will tank again, great opportunity for selling this rally.
For the week we are near break even, currently holding a small long position on the Euro, I will hold this position until I get a short signal, which usually happens on the 3rd, 4th or 5th day.
Overall a lot of news, some missed opportunity on the Pound and Cad, and a very uneventfull day of waffling for the Euro.

Week 4 Jan 25 2009 Fed Week at the Forex

2009-01-30T11:33:00.004-05:00

Remaining shorts from previous week have been covered today. It's possibly a little too early to exit, but we certainly are entering key support. We're almost where we left off from the beginning of the week with the USD seesawing from bear to bull in a span of 5 days.
It remains to be see whether momentum through the weekend and early next week can breach approaching support.
This month can be summed up as a continuation of the bear move that started last month. The USD has stayed strong against most of the majors because the uncertainty that the markets can't and may not shake off in the near term.
Though not 100% correlated, the equity markets and sentiment will determine when we have a true reversal with EURUSD. For now it's selling the rallies, and if we do have a pop Long, it's taking the profits as soon as we have a bearish signal. Overall, a great profitable month, 11 more to go.

Euro Week 2 Jan 18 2009

2009-01-20T11:29:00.004-05:00

Our dead cat bounce from last Friday appeared to show it self this week. The Eurozone and UK are reeling from horrible banking news, specifically RBS of Scotland.
The pressure on most European currencies continues. AO has navigated the shorts well, and we'll cover when the we see the first color change.
Pay particular attention by the failed bounce confirmed with the up fractal, and the confirmations of AO.
There could be continued pressure on the Eur for the rest of this week. My concern is the momentum of the drop.
Some correction is due, unlike last week, I will not hesitate to take some lots off the table. We recovered a large part of last years bad trades and we're off to a terrific start for 2009.
Updated: covered a very small short position late afternoon, but reentered with similar size, so new entry is currently profitting.
We've clearly popped through the 1.3000 handle finally with authority, 1.2900 is out and we expect some further drop this week if the miserable banking news continues.
I would expect significant consolidation approaching 1.2500's and if this pans out, I'll unwind a good amount of positions, right now it's bad news, and great momentum, and we're on course.

Week 1 New Year 2009

2009-01-09T18:48:00.011-05:00

The 2008 Year End Euro weakness was tested early this week. Geopolitical and fundamental conditions have tested the USD against most majors. Considerable weakness against the Pound.
Though there was volitility, overall sentiment was a weak USD.
The question this week was whether we'd get clues as to where the Dollar would begin the brand new trading year.
This was Non-Farm Payroll week. The expectations were low, if not disastorous from last months job figures. Slightly better than expected numbers slowed down the Dollar weakness from the past 3 days.
It is significant to see how our AO kept us short, despite a rather huge move upwards with Euro even on the 4HR charts. Thus our bias will remain short until a significant failure against next key support levels in the low 1.3000 handle. ainly th downward acceleration from last month has slowed. If/when we approach k
A slow lazy trading week, profitable, consistant though and on track to start the year. Short levels in the low 1.300's handle, we have to keep a close eye on momentum. Further weakness in this momentum and we'll scale our Euro shorts and play it safe.Expectations before next ECB meeting should keep downward pressure on Euro.

Dec 14-19 2008 AUD/USD

2008-12-22T16:56:00.005-05:00

This was a Fed week with lots of movement. Originally my bias was short, but that trade was stopped and even the long reverse trade was nearly stopped out by a whip.
After the Fed meeting, this pair and most majors moved considerably against the USD.
Took profits on the Long reverse trade, but looked to get out on any weakness in momentum.

This grey chart is how the week ended.
We see here the move down was just as abrupt as the move upwards after Fed Day.
Our momentum analysis, was disciplined and more importantly, profitable.

Our current position is short EUR/USD. Direction will not totally be clear until markets are back from holiday, and thin trading conditions are over. Our bias remains bearish until momentum signs change.

Conditions were not as difficult as the previous week, however reversing the losing position was important to contain a large drawdown because of market volitility. A B+ for trade management this week.

Dec 1 2008 Week Filtering

2008-12-05T03:09:00.004-05:00

2 Positions we started off Monday. As with most Mondays, the direction for the week was not clear. There was a good amount of consolidation, prior to any trend developement. With the Aussie, the trend never revealed itself, even after a significant rate cute by the RBA. After a few spikes in both direction, and clearly a loss of momentum, I closed this out with a +24 gain.

Time saved
Pips gained
Great filtration and we move on

Our Cad(loonie) position had a much more positive picture. There was certainly some drawdown in the beginning, but remained bullish on the indicators. This is just a volitile time, and a volitile currency pair. Still when the signs grew more bullish, I added to the small position, and will manage this until I see a clear loss of Momentum.

Outcome: After 400+ pip gain from the start of the week, we trailed this stop by about 85. The pair reversed sharply in the afternoon, and by using the trailing stop we saved at least $200. The key 1.3000 handle just could not hold and like 2 previous tries, really got rejected to the downside. We've taken about +600 pips this week, and from the 2 previous weeks, trading conditions have not been easy to analyze or manage. Pleased to say that we had a good week in a tough market.

Waiting Game - Week Nov 16-21 2008 USD/CAD

2008-11-20T21:29:00.004-05:00

A short lesson in how waiting can save & make money. The USD has been looking for direction with confirmation the past 2 days including late Sunday evening.
The flat MA's, Macd, and the volitile whips were sure fire ways to lose, even with good size stops, the risk was totally unacceptable even for quick profits.
The USDCAD took off like a rocket after this period of consolidation.
On the Daily, my bias was bullish, even with the severe correction 2 weeks ago.
With oil and commodities, bad economic data, uncertainty with financials and bailouts, the CAD was due for some serious pain. In this case and on Thurs in particular, a 300+ point move
Happy to report we took 3/4 of this move and exited while the divergence formed.
This is a good chart to reference, when doing nothing was something, doing nothing meant being rewarded for patience.

Euro Fade of Rally Oct 23-24 2008

2008-10-24T03:18:00.010-04:00

Left Frame 1HR - First sign of weekness was long shadow of top blue candle.
Middle Frame 4HR - Similar sign was long shadow on bear candle.
Right Frame Daily - Blue candle was just a brief rally. Short bias remained, that trend would continue 2nd or 3rd day.
Entry on Left Frame 1HR was similar to Gimee Bar. The mental stop was above the top blue candle above Bollinger band.

The US Dollar strength has continued across the board with the Yen being the only exception. Dollar repatriation and Dollars returning from emerging markets and hedge funds has accelerated the decline of the commodity currencies. Tonight the Aud/Jpy was down as much as 8%.

Currently holding runner at +277 pips after closing 1 lot +180 pips

At the Top for the Drop

2008-09-24T18:36:00.004-04:00

Observations: Late last week the USD weakened considerably with extreme volitility due to the credit crunch, the commodity and Euro currencies benefited in dramatic way. With some resolution and eventual intervention by the US govt, I see a correction coming back to the downtrend, and a strengthening US dollar.

The fall may not be as quick, but I see an upside to the British pound unlikely, so at this point I'm short near the 1.8500 handle. I could possibly have my wave count wrong. Lets see how it plays out, remember can't be accused here of 'Hard right edge' :)

Sept 10-11 Short at the 38

2008-09-11T05:42:00.003-04:00

Shorted at the 38% level with stop just above the 50%
Entered at the breakout and first bear candle around 107.58 exited @ 107.07 for a +51 pips gain.
The USD/JPY has been on a downtrend. The only USD major that has been weak, while Euro and Pound have been on a freefall. Most of the commodity currencies have been pumelled by the Dollar.
Was not the best pair to trade, but trend was read correctly & confirmed by price action and fibs.
There is further downside to this pair, but will avoid buying.
Will possibly sell the next rally again if risk is right and can pick up a tight stop.

Market News Weekend Trade Gap

2008-09-08T08:33:00.004-04:00

Shorted Euro again after upward weekend price gap.
During Asian trading, wasn't certain if the move upwards could be sustained so waited to see whether the trendline could be broken during European open.
Bull candle was engulfed by huge Bear candle at Euro open.
Gap that was key support area was also taken out.
This trade was down as much as -80, however stayed with trade and let trend turn it into a winner +120 pips.

Week of Aug 24-29 2008 Euro

2008-08-30T14:53:00.017-04:00

The Euro continues to range and remain weak, in line with oil.
Resistance levels also holding well as any short term reversal hasn't materialized.
There is a possible chance of a bounce next month if equity markets weaken.
We're holding this trade for 100 ticks and will redraw trendlines as needed.

Update: Trade and trend moving favorably, 25 pips from target. Trend lines were redrawn but entry remained in place.

Entered @ 1.4691 15 pips late but so far so good.

Final Results:

Target Hit for 116 Pips - Euro continued to slide well beyond this target for another 90 pips.

June 18-22 2007 USD Long Term Strength

2007-06-21T10:21:00.000-04:00

The USD strengthening continues this week with no major news releases and nothing aiding the Yen to stop the dollar bull trend. Cross Yen pairs also followed the Yen decline and I've made several Long trades on CAD/JPY pullbacks. The trades are there and the trend intact even when my 1st trade on Monday was near the top.

Bottom line is 4,5, and 6 pair basket sets have performed wonderfully, all profitable with 10%+ gains on margin. Examing the Euro pairs, we're currently in position on the following. Caution though since this entire month has been a sustained rally across most markets, this includes equity markets, despite some triple digit losing days. These pairs need to be evaluated on a market downturn in carry's. On a weekly basis, we'll be opening the same position size with both the Euro zone pairs and over several months of different market conditions, we'll forward test and note the performance, weighing the strength and weaknesses of each collection.

GBP/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD

June 10-15 Bull Trend Continuation

2007-06-14T18:54:00.000-04:00

This week the USD has continued its gain against 3 pairs I'm watching.

USD/JPY - Bullish stable, fairly strong
GBP/USD - Bearish weak, upside move yesterday failed.
EUR/USD - Bearish weak, not as weak as Pound but moving in same direction.

Like 2 weeks ago, the trend has continued to move USD positive with the Yen at near 4 year highs. This weeks news were all favorable to the dollar, moderately weak PPI and long 10 year treasuries gaining to push the USD even further.

As for system portfolios and baskets, we've been profitable this weak and should finish tomorrow with good gains. The small drawdown from last weeks collection was all returned. From this weeks performance, particularly the Yen, we know now that last weak was just a minor correction. We'll have to see if a major correction for the Yen and Yen pairs is in stored since we're in extremely high levels.

The British pound has made attemtps to turn bullish, but the pause in rate hikes last week put an end to any follow through. We're stuck at the 1.970 levels and not going bullish till after 1.9770 or 1.9890 is taken out with momentum. Still holding a long positin from last week. We'll keep this position till the trend turns bullish. It appears that 1.9630 is the temporary major support, at this point we're definitely in a range.

June 3-8 2007 Yen Correction

2007-06-10T02:58:00.000-04:00

As expected most of our trades took a correction earlier in the week with the Yen moving closely with the Equity markets. The markets took a good beating this week with only Friday having a triple digit day on the positive side. It was a good preview of how some of the basket collections would perform had a full scale unwind occured. When the Yen strengthens even the pairs which we wouldn't think would be affected, moved against us significantly.

The 6 pair basket at 3% risk went as low as -105 on the negative side, or approximately -3% equity drawdown using a test accoun. This is still not all that bad. Some of these pairs had 3 positions averaged in. A full scale drop like that of Feb 2007 this 3% could have probably been 10% realistically. By friday we saw a swing to the positive side, with the Pound lagging behind the other pairs. Next week I expect the trend to continue and even if the Yen stalls at the 122.00 level, our 4 and 6 pairs will profit from the positions we scaled in at lower prices.

So to summarize:

4Bonz Basket at 3% per trade was the top performer. It was the quickest to recover from the downturn, and during the yen strengthening, the drawdown was satisfactory, with proper money management.
The JCMac 6 pair at 1.5% equity limit was also satisfactory, nearly hitting -3% drawdown for the week, but coming back to -1%. Much more affected by Yen strengthening, so this has to be scaled properly, and a good idea might be to hedge against pairs on the drop.

This is an interesting experiment that must be watched and tested. These collections will perform flawlessly in a strong market, weak Yen environment. We can test our risk tollerence when there are weeks when it corrects and prepare for a full scale unwind should it occur. Interesting how the Dow and Yen correlated this week, it doesn't seem to be coincidental.

Newbie Note #1

2007-03-12T12:17:00.000-04:00

Who wasn't new at some point in their venture or endeavour. I've been at this game for a few years now. The pitfalls, traps, lessons, and what one trading partner coined it one time "A denizen of thieves". A few snippets I can offer to those who are just getting their feet wet in this market.

Absolutely, positively DO NOT overleverage your account. This is particularly true if you're a swing trader and you're not scalping pips with very, very tight stop losses.
The majority of those starting out in FX want to day trade. While this is certainly a thrill and fun. There's a high probability that whatever you profit in the short term, in the long term you'll give back these profits and then some. So if I don't day trade, how can I have fun making money in FX? I'll elaborate on this in another post. I can tell you though when I gave up the day trades, I became profitable. Do I still make day trades? Hell yeah, but I'll limit my trades to 2 a week. Last week I made 1 trade for $104 bucks. To the dismay of my broker, I didn't do another day trade after Monday, just kept the money :)
This leads to one of the biggest mistakes I made as a new trader. Overtrading.
If you're overtrading, more than likely you don't have a trading plan. I'll make some suggestions and possibly show a few spreadsheets later on on how I manage my risk, if you're a little lazy to make a plan.

Nov 10 2006 Forecasted Cycle Correction

2006-11-10T19:10:00.000-05:00

Divergence was clearly in the picture 10 days ago.
The big dive only happened yesterday when the pair took a 12% drop.
This was the opportunity for the entry today, when it seems the correction was over, and the beginning of the bounce.

October Swing 15 Days

2006-11-04T10:28:00.000-05:00

A great swing and near perfect entry 2 days after the bounce.
The 60SMA has held very well the past few swings.
Contracts were held for approx 15 days with very little drawdown and decent profits.
The frustration was selling the contracts too early. A 2 day pullback occured after selling, but afterwards a bullish surge to near high levels.
This would have resulted in significantly higher profits lasting the entire month of October.
Looking to reenter within the next week in Nov, that wait has been somewhat frustrating, but if the cycles hold, I'm expecting it soon.

Post FMC Session - Asian Market Supp/Res

2006-08-10T00:46:00.000-04:00

FOMC Interest Rates unchaned at 5.25% expected a dive in the USD that didn't happen that session.
This is the 2nd FOMC rate release in the past few months that had this whipsaw effect, that would have taken out any reasonable stop.
The dive in the USD later happened during the Asian market session.
Nearly caught the bottom of this trade, but had 2 bad entries that were placed too far from support lines.
This was somewhat of a risky trade initially due to the solid bear signals of both price and CCI. The 1st clue that the bottom of the move was near is the S1 support line followed closely by the smooth up was trendline, you could also see the double bottom near support. Would have went short if this didn't bounce.
Weighing the fundamentals, a good move up for Non USD pairs shouldn't have been a major surprise. This was more of a Supp/Res Pivot Cam trade, but it's important to note what a good confirmation trigger the CCI was.

Aug 3 2006 - ECB Interest Rate News

2006-08-04T23:16:00.000-04:00

BOE rate news had movement bullish immediately upon release. ECB by contrast accellerated after 8:30am est.
Even with expected rate increase, the USD was under pressure for the entire morning and continued for the rest of the week.

In Range NFP Week

2006-08-01T07:47:00.000-04:00

1 stop hit, 1 closed early for a small loss. 1 +27 and closed at the top of the BBand.
Resistance level has held for 2 good days, and don't expect any real moves till this friday.
Target are going to be no more than +40 intraday
Entry has to be right at bottom Band, since the EUR is still Bullish. There was an attempted reversal on the Short side early Asia session, but that failed, so with the trend buy the dips is still bias.

US Empire Manufacturing

2006-07-17T12:52:00.000-04:00

3 trades stopped small losses
Completely rangebound.
Yellow bars will give a jump on entry, but still not a clear sign that volitility is on the rise.

Fed Rate Announcement Earlier this Afternoon

2006-06-29T23:36:00.000-04:00

2+ weeks of Bearish EUR ended this afternoon with a bang after Fed raised STI 1/4 point. huge spike bar pretty much sums it all.
The key 61% retracement ~.2481 just could not be taken out, it was solid support and USD with multiple trys failed every time.
Clearly the EUR from the early part of 2006 has been on a Bullish path. With the 2+ week pullback, it's time to look for a bullish continuation.
Entered an Asian market pullback Long on EUR, also added small position Short on Swissy. For Eur and US session I'm looking for next Fib levels to be tested, and gauge whether this afternoons sentiment will remain strong.
If trend remains intact, I expect a much bigger move being Long on EUR as opposed to Short the past few weeks.
Overall pleased with gains last few weeks, over 150+ pips on 1 trade 40+ pips on added positions. This through many many days of heavy chop and whips, this week up until today being totally miserable for trading.
Glad to see gains returning as well on equity positions, more relieved about that than FX.

Bull reversal - Short Pullback with ZLR

2006-06-22T08:01:00.000-04:00

Entered short EUR a little late, but objective was just to add to a Short position I've been holding for 2 weeks. Yesterday the EUR was clearly on a Bull run and pulled back deep early this morning. Early in the EUR session finally hit resistance @ 1.2678 and the trend was on.

Confirmations for short as anotated on chart. WCCI gave some reassurance since I was a little hesitant late yesterday to go short. The best scenario: have as many short positions on EUR till next weeks Fed meeting, make a few $$ in interests, if bear run continues after Fed meeting, more big gains ahead, otherwise, tighten stops, cover short and enjoy the profit. Holding @ +38 pips

US Trade Deficit Report

2006-06-09T11:46:00.000-04:00

After news, 25-30 pip whips, key support of 1.2600 seems to be holding just happens to be 50 day MA. Good chance of the EUR bouncing if this doesn't get taken out next time around.
Still holding short position from yesterday currently +108 pips. May scale down the position today and hold small position this weekend.
This news release is a tricky one to trade, I've seen price come back near open after surging either direction, a reasonable size TP is the way to go, not a trade you want to hold long if you're not already in one.
Trend 5

ECB Interest Rate Announement

2006-06-08T09:45:00.000-04:00

Big moves this morning, could be bigger if Dailys support gets taken out.
+62 Pips already locked, intially Short@ 1.2738 holding 1 contract, possibly rest of this week.

BOE Interest Rate Announcement

2006-06-08T09:20:00.000-04:00

Safe to say this trade was whipsawed. The downtrend this past week has been difficult to reverse.
There were key support levels that may have changed conditions, but when they were broken after 13:15gmt, all bets were off and the bottom fell out.
Long Trade stopped out for small -15 loss

Short GBP ZLR

2006-06-07T09:52:00.000-04:00

No major news releases.

May 2006 Non-Farm Payrolls Released

2006-06-02T10:28:00.000-04:00

Job growth faltered in May, with employers boosting payrolls by just 75,000 forecasted figure was 110K.
Good volitility at 13:30gmt but unlike last month tapered off significantly by 9am. The 75% rule here at 2/3 the contract size was a good move
The 1/3 runner was taken out before 14:30gmt
Good morning overall Trend 4

May 5, 2006 April Non Farm Payrolls Report

2006-05-05T15:26:00.000-04:00

200,000 was the projected number but came in well short@ 138,000 huge spike on 13:30gmt 40-50+ bull spike in less than 5 secs.
Many indications that this trend was over and done after the spike including dead indicators and especially the 2566 resistance level holding firm after a few trys.
Flat CCI and dead juice should have closed the trading session, 2 trades instead of 3 for a small gain, instead of a small loss.
Please refer to Closed Blog charts for detailed summary of this mornings NFP release and log.

2 Trades stopped for -15 pips, 1 trade +21 pips closed @ 5000 units, 250000 units stopped out B/E on reversal.
Trend 3

GDP Preliminary 2006 Q1 and Chicago PMI

2006-04-29T04:46:00.000-04:00

Excellent Trend 5 morning after preliminary Q1 GDP released, caught this move neary from the start of the deep pullback.
Risk was fairly small and entry may have been a bar early when the spread was nearly 4 pips.
At 14:00 GMT there was some heat that could have shaken out this trade not necessarily stopped it out, but no exit signals so stayed with the trade and momentum picked up even late into the afternoon right before close.
Closed out 2/3 of the contracs for +70 pips, with 1/2 contract still open over the weekend with a large +75 SL.
*** Please Note that a special reference chart was saved in the private section with more details ***

April 20, 2006 Weeky Jobless Claims

2006-04-20T18:47:00.000-04:00

Lackluster session low vol and range
Stopped for -11 pips
Bar after spike would have been a winner, barely green on risk/reward ratio.

April 7, 2006 After Non Farm Payroll Released

2006-04-09T22:19:00.000-04:00

Non Farm Payroll higher than expected jobs figure.
Entered 14:15gmt Bar, could have entered 14:00gmt bar.

April 6 2006 Entry Before Candle Prints

2006-04-06T18:32:00.000-04:00

March 31, 2006 - Consumer Spending

2006-03-31T10:34:00.000-05:00

Good day to stay out. Could breakout later this morning, but at this point, also being friday, not enough trend.

March 20, 2006 - GDP Released

2006-03-30T11:30:00.000-05:00

Great movement today after GDP release. Bearish for the USD so movement happened in just a few bars.
Like yesterday, just have to avoid jumping in too early before bar closes and misreading trend direction.
With such a sustained bearish movement past several hours, going long would have been a risky move which wouldn't have been justified for such a small gain.
Trend 5

Post FOMC Interest Rate Hike

2006-03-29T13:33:00.000-05:00

Day after Fed rasied SIR 1/4 point.
Bullish on EUR after yesterdays drop, climbing back to where it dropped.
Exit was a little premature here, only gained +19 after being stopped for -14 ealier.
Moves like other days have occured late in the day well after 11am.
Observed the Bar Close Rule on entry, so entry was fine here. Stopped the trade too early, had to step out, will exit only on bar close so as to not violate the rule next time.

March 21, 2006 Feb PPI Released

2006-03-21T11:32:00.000-05:00

Trend at about 3, short trade was on the mark, trailed the stops though tight since I didn't feel the trend was strong enough for big pips.
Stopped out at +33, still 3:1 which is more than an acceptable risk for me.

March 14, 2006 Weak Trend 2 Reversals

2006-03-14T22:44:00.000-05:00

Note the resistance line, but also how limited volitility has been. Any target over +40 pips is a stretch past few weeks.
Traded only 2 contracts but let it his its limi instead of scaling and trailing the stop. For now this seems to be the higher percentage play in getting the most out of a trade, +40 is a good number.

March 8, 2006 Flat Trend 1

2006-03-08T13:00:00.000-05:00

Sideways market most USD pairs, probably due to big Trade news release tomorrow and Fed comments due later on today.
Questionable volitility level from the start, better to take a small position when these conditions appear.
The short breakout was weak, 3 bars at the most. Support levels being so close to entry, any Shorts would have been small gainers at best.
This is a stand aside, protect the account and be defensive sort of trading day.

Yen Wolfe March 6, 2006

2006-03-06T21:55:00.000-05:00

Early stages of the formation, looking for a nice Short here, could be a biggie drop if things go according to plan.
Still in hope mode at the moment, lets see where this one goes.
Trade stopped out -30, catching the actual end of wave 5 is a little tricky, maybe a late entry isn't such a bad thing.

2 Wolfes So Far So Good March 3, 2006

2006-03-03T11:03:00.000-05:00

Haven't traded it live yet, just something I'm having fun with, still have some problems seeing these waves at times, but when I see them especially near key pivots, I won't ignore them so easy.
Hope to be able to trade these on longer time frames when I get the hang of it.
Update results: eur/jpy got stopped out and trend continued bullish, the wave formation was questionable. usd/cad much better results and better wolfe formation and hit target +73pips.

TLB Math Lines March 3, 2006

2006-03-03T10:52:00.000-05:00

ISM Released this morning at 10am - Slight rules violation here, entered short before 10am with a tight SL 18
Morning Euro session flat dead and worthless to trade so stayed discipline there.
The upside move right after the consolidation did not show enough volitility to make it worth the Long entry.
Waited till the upper resistance are was approached and waited to see if it would break the key 1.2054 This failed and EUR dropped over +40 on 1 bar.
Didn't want to stay short since i'm still not convinced we're bearish, if it bounces @1.1993 I may take a long looking for another +40

February 23, 2006 Weak Markets

2006-02-23T06:42:00.000-05:00

Feb 15, 2006 ZLR Long GBP Trend 3

2006-02-15T23:12:00.000-05:00

February 9, 2006 Still in Range Good Chop Filtering

2006-02-09T15:41:00.000-05:00

Flat chopped filled market, pretty risky to trade, only managed +31 pips on the pound.
Notice the strong support around .7387 prices bounced off this level and went upwards rest of the day.
Chop filters of the lsma kept me on this trade on the right side, as it was bullish earlier.
Definitely 1 on Trend Meter, its been like that this whole week
The idea is to stay defensive, take small profits and get out asap.

February 6 2006 NFP Bear trend Short Continued

2006-02-06T20:21:00.000-05:00

Caught this move near the top with breakout, stayed in the trade because the trend remained bearish, rallied for a short time , but gappped down in our direction over the weekend
Traillng price around 50 and will let this stop me out if the trend finally calls it quits.

USD/CAD Weak Trends

2006-01-31T14:21:00.000-05:00

Double Top or RSI?

2006-01-24T13:54:00.000-05:00

Which indicator do we trust? I like both, I certainly pay attention when Dtops or Dbottoms pop up, in this case even though it's a short term chart, I didn't ignore the long term trend, which is up. We've had a few minor corrections that past 48 hours, but ignoring the trend I think is asking for trouble unless you're a real pro.
Only pair I saw today that had any signs of life was GBP/USD, been an absolutely dead market. So far the systems kept me out of some bad trades. I probably would have Longed CHF otherwise. At around 9am est, I thought the double top would take the direction the other way, at least short term. I got in late LONG on GBP around 1.7857, still not too bad +30 pips, closed 1 lot kept the other running if we break .7896 I think there's still some good, but we're due for a correction, Longs on GBP and EUR may not be automatic. The daily RSI's way up there.

January 23, 2006 Weekend Gap

2006-01-23T09:34:00.000-05:00

Big gap on some of the USD pairs. Favorable for short trades.
Entered last night during the Asian market, even with the chop, entry was safely in the positive.
The trend currently is Bearish for the USD and this has been solid since late last week.
As for the fundamental reasons for the decline, Im not sure, I do know that going long is a huge risk I'm going to avoid, until this bear cycle is clearly done.
Lets see how this system behaves on a less trendy market.

Jan 19, 2006 4HR GBP FIB

2006-01-19T12:06:00.000-05:00

The trend since yesteday has been bearish for the GBP, still in yesterdays trade entering short @1.7645 earlier this morning up as much as +80 pips, however a big reversal bar past hour is testing the 38% level.
Following rules, a close above 1.7660 would stop this trade out, but until that point is reached, no action was to be taken.
The daily RSI has been > 50 so that strict rule was violated yesterday, we have to see how strong a filter the daily RSI will be in this trade.
What we need to check is how efficient the exit strategy will be by not closing this trade or not trailing the stops, we only stop out at 25% level, and follow the trend if the bearish trend continues, at this point, it seems the trend south is holding.

Jan 5-6, 2006 NFP Release

2006-01-05T16:42:00.000-05:00

Holding large 8 Lot positions overnight on Swissy, and tightening the stops closer to NFP release. 13:30 GMT.
Stops have held since this morning, trend seems to be continuing though much weaker than 2 days prior.
Right side of trade USDCHF took a sharp drop for a quick +89 gain. Resistance level held perfectly, never came close to getting stopped.

2005-12-02T07:44:00.000-05:00

Nothing but consolidation and whips Nov 30 morning, stopped out twice for -25 losses. Will time the orders next time, if the breakout doesn't happen at a certain, I'm out and will move on.
Dec 1 made up for most of the loses with a +71 short nearly catching the top close to the 50% retracement.
Target almost perfect, closed a little early, but would have hit it before the short term reversal.

CPI Release this Morning

2005-11-16T20:37:00.000-05:00

Entered short on the EUR last night at midnight. Buying pressure though weak nearly took out my stops on 2.5 lots. Tested some key resistance lines and entered about 20 pips below so really only risked 20. Fibonacci time interval nailed the reversal at 5:00am precisely taking the trade to the profitable side.
All resistance levels have held nearly 24 hours later when during the day CPI higher than expected inflationary numbers pushed the dollar higher against the Euro.
May tighten stops if things change coming Euro session.

Trendlines Nov 7-8

2005-11-08T09:12:00.000-05:00

A strong start for the USD this week as the EUR, AUD and other pairs take another beating. If like 2004, November should be a good trading and trending month.
Off to a good start this week, even though only made 5 trades, 2 were stopped out for -20 but big drop on the EUR with 2 lots profited for +89. Currently up +18% for the week and +30% for the past week 1/2. Trying to limit trades, and being more on the conservative side, rather satisfied with this approach and looking to continue with this plan.
Overall the strategy was to wait on the 1HR and higher time frames for the key levels to be tested, the majority of the time going with the trend, however if signs of the trend ending, jumping in right away with as tight as stop as possible to get the countertrend. The Yen may be one of these pairs. For the past few weeks it's rocketed with no signs of weakening. This week it's dropped from the 118 level and today in the mid 117. Currently in a position on USD. If the downtrend continues, and 117.47 gets taken out the mid 116's looks like it may be in the picture this week and a nice profit with it. If 117.47-117-50 holds, it may just be sideways action.

Trendline Breakouts Oct 21 2005 Part 2 and Swinging

2005-10-21T12:06:00.000-04:00

Snapshot of previous chart few hours later. Key 50MA has almost been taken out. Next key support is about 40+ pips away @ 1.7624 followed by further support 50 pips away.
The GBP is extremely volitile sometimes and entries are far more difficult with tight stops.
The CHF entries have been on more than 24 hours, while 2 earlier entries on the GBP with tight stops of 25 were easily whipped out near the head and shoulders. I'll look to confirm entry later next time with GBP using either CHF or EUR as a clue that the trend is underway.

More Trendline Breakouts Oct 21 2005

2005-10-21T11:36:00.000-04:00

Appears to be more than just a pullback for the AUD and GBP bullish move these past few days. Waited for the reversal, or at least correction. On the bullish move earlier in the week, my entry was nearly at the bottom. Many of the lots were closed 1/2 through the move, so that was unfortunate getting out too soon.
If this reversal is confirmed, will set to break even and go for the targets. Close to 200 pips each. Stochastics still looking good at this point, not oversold and angle steep.

Sunday Oct 17, 2005 GBP Fade

2005-10-17T06:19:00.000-04:00

Reversal of fridays bullish move on the GBP currently +114 Risked only 25 before the big drop
2 consective reversal bars right before entry before todays Euro market opening.

Testing the Double Tops

2005-10-10T23:20:00.000-04:00

This double top was a little too tempting to pass up. Both the equity and fx markets have been tricky to navigate the past few weeks, choose the wrong instrument and you can be in some real chop for an extended period of time. Higher 4HR fibs late last night sunday when the Asia markets opened looked like this long Eur rally was running out of juice with the JPY. Tested the 2nd top again, but this time waiting for the 50 MA to be taken out. No breakouts for at least 10 hours, when it did, the drop was good, and even now at +60 pips, there's still a shot at +89 or higher if the 38% and 50% get breached. If strong signs of reversal creep up on Stochs, I'll cover 1/2 the position and let it run.

Flat Stormy Week

2005-08-26T17:23:00.000-04:00

Perfect week to have a hurricane. Missed nothing in the FX markets except range and chop after not having electricity the past 2 days. Only real pair that had any signs of a trend was CAD, which happened to pull in +100 pips earlier this week. This was a good week to see if any signals would have been given. Contrast this week to last week, many systems would have worked great last week since many pairs were in a trend for 2-3 days. Took CAD on low risk trend line breaks, no other valid signals after Monday. This is a good sign when a system can keep you out of risk. No doubht a large portion of profits from last week would have been given back to the market had any trades been open. This may be the short term trend till after September and the holiday, in which case I'll gladly step aside and maybe only take a dip on a rally if I see good ranging action on the 30min or 1HR charts. Giving this week a 1 on the trend scale and making notes off all ADX on the pairs I trade.

The Trend is My Friend

2005-08-18T10:48:00.000-04:00

Some quick observations for last 12 hours:

There were signals the other days that GBP would follow the other major pairs. While most people think GBP leads and the others follow, this wasn't the case.
Having lagged behind the other pairs, this has actually been a good thing, because when GBP decides to go a direction, it usually goes and goes with some pop.
Key trendlines were broken on Monday. Going short at that time would have added 100+ pts. This could have been the confirmation that the MACD was warning of earlier.
Currently holding position GBP and even with missing the +100, profitable now at +90.
If 61% is breached, a clear path to +200 is a realistic target.
Automated trades have all gone well. One exception though was this morning. For some reason it went long on GBP. All other pairs, AUD, EUR, CHF, CAD were in the correct direction. at this point 3 out of 4 are winners, 2 being large gains, erasing all loses from last week with a net gain of 19% of account equity. Finally a program that works, well lets see it it can stay out of trouble, when the market goes sideways.
Only real issue now is the size of the stops and entries. There's been a high pct of winners when the stops haven't been tight, this needs to be looked at.
So yes when you don't lost money, the trend is your friend, at least one worth waiting for 3 days. Total pips for the week just on single lots: +445

Trend Reversals

2005-08-17T20:41:00.000-04:00

Monday and Tuesday were good days to just stand aside. Favorable USD news last Friday seems to have carried over and reversed(at least for now) the USD decline past few weeks. I've been patiently waiting for this reversal to happen, and carefull not to enter longs on USD too early. Last night(Tues) entered and rentered t CHF twice, but got stopped for -30 pips. Today direction starting to become a little more clear and finally profitable on CHF. I've noticed that the EUR reversed sooner than CHF, and even before GBP. If GBP falls tonight during the Euro Market, I'm going to jump on a hope for a nice drop, hopefully for 100-200 pts. Hopefully no news screws things up.

Late Enries- Continued

2005-08-12T05:03:00.000-04:00

FOMC

2005-08-10T09:09:00.000-04:00

Wanted to wait a few days until FOMC was out of the way. Looks like the US rate hike didn't do much for the USD, there were no surprises so not much chance the USD would go bull.

Going to test a new longer term strategy next few weeks, started last night, and so far so good on the first trade, +40 and trade still going. Targetting 100 pips, so it will take a few days. The stop loss is rather large, so that's something that needs to be addressed after 20-30 trades. Based on the expectancy and drawdown, I'll decide whether to keep the large stop and if it's an essential part of the strategy.
Observations thus far:

On almost every trade(7-8 positions entered) entries were very late into the swing. This is clear on the charts, yet I'm not sure if even a 30pip stop would have been taken out, this is great sign.
All trades broke key fib and trendlines.
All the winning trades, which at the moment seem to be all had momentum at the entry point breaking out to 20-30 pips. This momentum kept many from reversing below break even. Even during consolidation, the trades hung at around 15-25 pips, before continuing in a profitable direction.
Often times when I trailed stops, and the market went into consolidation as it did earlier, i'd get stopped out when the market broke out of the consolidation phase.
Waiting for another choppy/whipsaw week to see if this level of consistancy can continue. Ideally, less than 1 trade for each pair should be opened if we get one of those really dreadfull trading weeks.

JPY Today

2005-08-04T19:09:00.000-04:00

Some pretty good breakouts this week, certainly an improvement from middle of last week. Nothing specatcular, or maybe even sustainable, though the USD has taken a pretty good hit on the JPY, GBP and EUR. Going to be carefull to do any buying, I'll be looking to sell some of the rallies, even if they're small. +35

Last evening big bearish spikebar at 3GMT, going short, breaking rules would have been the obvious move, I avoided entering, and good thing, a reversal right back the other direction, and JPY was bullish all Euro session.

Monday Mythes

2005-08-01T07:25:00.000-04:00

For some reason many people don't trade late sun early mon. Could be that after the weekend, the perception is that traders won't really be interested and that volitility will be little to none. This is the 2nd winning sun/mon . In the past I've had pretty good results. If I see a flat/dead market, then I back off naturally, but don't necessarily have strings of losses. Lets hope this week is better than last week and we actually get a trend that lasts more than 2 days, my opinion is that's not going to happen, and if it doesn't, I'll look to do a lot of fades. +39 JPY, didn't expect much so set the target low.

Keeping close tabs this week on volitility levels, last week this was certainly lacking.

GDP Release USDCAD

2005-07-29T10:36:00.000-04:00

Wild swinging morning and certainly why I normally do not trade before news is released. Huge spike bars can take you out, or anyone else for that matter in a hurry, even with big stops. Few notable lessons though I can take with this loss:

When candles/bars close outside the range and even beyond the BBAnds, this is still a high risk entry. Most of the time, there will be some retraction.
Entered beneath lower BBand because this was the 61% retractio, more than likely even today this will be breached, but by not waiting, a quick spike will take you out.
Interesting method may be(like the video), to wait for the pullback above the MB, and use the UB as the stop, much higher pct play.

USDJPY Euro Session

2005-07-28T11:14:00.000-04:00

Thought going Short on USDJPY earlier was a bit risky, there were just too many pivots and retractments to bust through. Decided to take the signal Long, but had the target too high at 60 pips. Certainly this pair behaves differently than GBPUSD. I'm going to keep the Targets on this pair at 30-40 from now on and moving stop to 1 after +30, for GBPUSD, where there's usually higher volitility and momentum during Euro times, I won't mess with trailing a stop. Instead I'll go with a tight stop and if it takes me out, so be it. I unfortunately left this trade unattended for 2 hours, and if I didn't move the stop to break even would have been a loss. had I watched it, should have been +30. Another , coulda,shoulda trade as they say.

Had my eye on USDCAD this morning seeing if anything was setting up. Initial entered a limit order Long, but cancelled it. Huge 30-40 pip ranges, perfect recipe for a whipsaw, looking at it now 11am, wise move, no big gains. GBPUSD was the pair to trade this morning.

Interesting Breakout Video

2005-07-27T18:18:00.000-04:00

If you haven't already been linked to it. Take a look, it's an interesting take on entering a breakout.
Also, drop me an email when you get a chance Aaron, I'll send you a private link. Sea67-> pauL

Breakout Vid

Bounced out Euro

2005-07-26T11:21:00.000-04:00

Entered the Eur this morning after 8:30am, thought maybe there would be some good movement. There hasn't been any real blockbuster movement on the EUR in a while at
least in the triple digit pip range, just a lot of wiggling and chop. Good indicator signals will still take out your stops if you get in too late, weak trends will do that, timing is as important as direction. Like last week, an early entry would have been a higher percentage trade since the low was near the 0% retractment. Next time, I will follow the Stochs and MACD , even if it's early and if the Bands are touching the 61% retractment like they were here, I'll enter, would have been a +30 pip gain instead of a -23 loss.

Trades for Week July 17 -22 Interest Rate Announcements-Click Statement to Enlarge

2005-07-22T21:17:00.000-04:00

Mixed results for this week. 1 winner, that really rallied could have been a big loss, and 2 losers, that could have been big wins, flip flopper trades. I would call it a week of some lost opportunities. The trends were short spans of time, big spikes mainly, and the rest of the time it was just messy chop that would get you in trouble. .

Certainly the Wednesday and Thursday Fed testimony and rate announcement cut the meat out of the first half of the week. The yuan announcement no longer being pegged to the dollar was a little of a surprise, I thought it would affect more than just the yen.
Certainly I'll have to look into adjusting my stops on trades. From the trades that failed, and that eventually turned out to become sizeable winners, the stops were the real contributors to the loss. My feeling really is I'll need to access a 10 min chart for entries, or really wait till the close of the 5min bars, and place the stop above the UBands. I cheated myself a bit this week and I paid for it by missing some real nice moves. On the trade statement above, the -21 on the Eur turned out to be an almost a 100 pip move to the short side, meaning I was right, my stop was wrong and pulled the trigger too soon on entry. I'll need to write "do not enter until Bar close" 100 times to get it into my head. Hope to repair these lapses next week.

Beware of Pip Watchers, & Some ACD figures

2005-07-22T17:02:00.000-04:00

Absolutely Aaron,

I'm impressed hearing bout surgeons, lawyers, engineers, and some fellow techies just leaving the office behind and trading full time. Mark Fisher was right though, when you get into a trading mode and have to enter a market to open trades, your'e going into battle, it's a humbling experience that can be a real high if you're a winner. If you get rattled and make a hasty, stinker of a trade like my last 2 this friday, you need a weekend to clear your mind. If I ramble on in other blog entries about waiting for the close of the bar on the Control unit of the chart, it's because I need remind myself so that I can make 100 pips like i should have on USDCHF trade yesterday, instead of jumping before close and getting closed out for a 1 pip gain, ouch! Now what would be the reason for the system requiring there to be low volitility, or minimal volitility? I may have learned that today, the more the volitility increases, the more your stop has to be just to keep u safely in the trade.

Eventually when I get about 30 trades I'll weigh in all these trades and calculate the expected values, just so I can convince myself trading it correctly is profitable. No need to with ACD, but since I had the trades logged in my database, I calculated the stuff anyways, so I share it here in the Blog. I made some mistakes first few times when i was a newbie trading ACD, so the profit was higher, I just gave a lot of it back. As you'll see, I'm delving with using limit orders instead. The first few limit orders I demo'd spooked me, 3 straight losers, maybe even 4, eventually as statistics usually works, the numbers correct themselves, and the winners hung around 50%. I shall continue with these limit orders, when I don't feel like sitting in front of my computer and "Tick WAtching" or in our case "Pip Watching" that's mark fisher terminology again. When you tick watch, you're not confident of the trade you entered, so u sit, and watch, and hope and pray, let me type that also 100 times so i can avoid that habbit :
( 100 x "I will not become a pip/tick watcher")
That's it for this crazy week of forex.

ps #1 Hey, for some reason, our blog showed up at the #1 spot of a Yahoo search, that's the good news, bad news is Yahoo search ain't like Granddaddy Google.
#2 You know the law, if I badmouth, or write and advise newbies to avoid certain forex signal providers and software companies, will I get myself in the doghouse? I ask because, probably on other forums I'll get banned, and since this blog has a chance to show up in a search engine, I maybe helping out a newbie from dumping some hard earned money, on voodoo forex.

What a Drop

2005-07-21T09:17:00.000-04:00

Only thing I'll hate about following 1 - 2 pairs is shaking my head when I look at the chart and I see a drop like today on the JPY. I will actually trade JPY and AUD with EUR, but my main focus will be on the EUR till I really feel comfortable with this new system. Not often though you see 200 point dips in an Hour bar. Even during NFP releases, do you get that, but revaluing of the China's currency was no doubht going to affect JPY, just don't know why the other currencies weren't affected as much, particularly AUD.

Last night I thought I'd just get some sleep, I'm glad I did, cuz this morning the charts looked like there was little direction, EUR with ACD looked like it got whipped right before it finally went long. So sleep was the right move. JPY has a few stairs to go down, may have to keep an eye on it, still may be opportunities, could be the end of the USD Bull. Even on the Daily chart, the JPY Stochs and MACD have x, neary same time, that's some serious heat. Along with fibs, nice to have the BBands as support levels, just another indicator to look ahead and see if this new trend has enough to keep going.

Congrats on the new member of your family Aaron, moonlight on FX will let you spend more time with him/her, course the day job is prob great, but having that time at home is priceless , especially the early years.

Sbenard made a nice summary of the system parameters for alerting an entry. It's a good guide when then the book takes you into too many different directions. I believe the team he's referring too is the one Charlie was on, and if they disbanded, looks like Sbenard caught on to you know what, anyways, we move ahead.

Eur Session Rangebound Going to stand aside till after Greenspan

2005-07-20T04:42:00.000-04:00

Should have waited till after 4am to open since there was some news release for the EUR. Wasn't overly confident of the direction of this trade eithe,r since prices were generally Long earlier and trying to pick off a reversal too early just presents too much risk. Add to that, Interest rates announcements later today, I think that's why I kept the stop at -16 Wisest thing I did on this trade was keep the stop tight. Thought maybe it had a chance to bust through the 50% Fib level, bounced up instead of busted.
Other mistake is not waiting for ACD to give me confirmation, though I think for this particular day, even the ACD A-up has a good chance to get stopped, since at the moment, the spike has already started to retract.
On the higher charts principal and main, the crosses were there for Short, small parallels earlier before the spike on the control, though not all that impressive.
The longer time frames can work both ways.

The crosses can have more slopes and angle so the direction is a little more clear, however a spike won't show up for a while, you'll need an above size stop to stay in it.
On the positive, a longer time frame for the control, can keep you from jumping in too early

Anyways, the plan is to take these -16, -17, -18,-20 pips losses, even if it's 1/2 the time, offset them with 30, 40, 50, even 50+ gains the rest of the time.

M&*^&% tec Strategy TAlly

2005-07-19T23:09:00.000-04:00

Some surprising results with some of these strategies, most were demo, but I tried to trade them as close to their rules as possible. The Sibkis results were outstanding, but I didn't have the stomach to let it run with stop loss of 100 pips. Though rare a wild whipsaw could take out both 50 pip stops on both sides. GBP no doubht is a great pair, when it trends it trends and it doesn't look back, that's prob why Sibkis doesn't work well with the other pairs, even CHF. This is only page 1 of my data, there were 2-3 more of losing what i call dud strategies. 1000 trades would be the ideal number, I think that's what Cahen says too, but I think from remembering some of my college statistics, 50 isn't a bad number for n The other ACD trades I made with the expected value I'll try to get on tomorrow. I've been pretty breakeven with it, even with Live trading, the expected value though is positive, so if you really let trades run, which I didn't, i was way too conservative, then the system is a winner, which is no big secret it is, just needs to be adjusted for FX, Charlie Handle, and MR. H were the pilgrims of it on FX, and we had to rely on what they put together.

the blogs pretty informal, won't have the scrutiny of StrategyFX, no bashers or nay sayers. Still going to get info on StratFX, but what I can't put on there, I'll be sure to on here, I'm sure some newbies won't mind reading it. I've tracked a lot of the strategy on the forums, for well over a year, both automated and non automated, live and demo. I'll post some of the results from my database. Based on the trades, in particular ACD which I've favored, the database tracked the pairs mixed and matched the best pairs. Charlie originally suggested to trade as many pairs as often as possible for ACD to minimize drawdown. When i thought about it, if it's
a numbers game, this would be true, even if u watch Marks tapes, he touches on this, that's why he trades so many insruments and markets. For us little guys who don't have 10 million in the bank yet, I don't think limitting to 2 pairs is dangerous for 1 main reason we're dealing with 1 market FX and USD pair. Most of the USD pairs affect each other most times. No big secret, EUR and CHF and GBP JPY and AUD. If it's truly trending, they'll move together or inversely. That the case trading just GBP or EUR over the long run you'll get a reasonably close amount of aups downs wins and losses. The bigger issue is choosing when a good
setup is worth the risk, and managing the trade, hardest part of ACD, but now with DTAFM there may be a solution
to this finally.

Charts Easier Method

2005-07-19T23:00:00.000-04:00

I use Metatrader so naturally you can just click File/Save As picture and snap the desktop. I think on here though it has to be .jpg format, so I have to open it up with Paint and convert it to this format. Paint is included with windows XP /Start/Programs/Accessories/Paint

I've used virtual trader, but don't know it by heart, here's an even easier way to capture your desktop, no extra software needed. Open up your chart like you want to take a snapshot of it. On your keyboard hit the Print/Scr key, which is as u guessed printscreen. This saves whatever you're viewing into windows buffer and clipboard. If you open up Paint on XP , you can then click Edit then Paste this capture just like copying and pasting text. All you have to do in paint is convert the image from .bmp or jpy Save as .jpg. this will reduce the size of the file tenfold since .jpg is known for it's not so great compressed features. I hope my instructions aren't as strange as some of cahens sentence structure :) See the benefits of this Blog, we can say whatever we want without getting lynched :)

Charts

2005-07-19T22:28:00.000-04:00

Paul,

I was wondering how you did your charts. I have used MWSnap 3 in the past, but the pics are too big to be economical. The pic I was going to send you today was over 5 mb.

When I view your chart pics, my computer allows me to enlarge them and everything comes in clearly.

Since I've made it through the book I imagine that I'll start having some questions as I try to put this together. I really need to go back and read through the thread at strategy builder again; it might make a bit more sense now.

I'll take an occassional gander at the CHF throughout the night and tomorrow while at work - we'll see what prespires. Off to bed for the time being. I'm in EST too - Michigan. I see you are in Florida - toasty all year round, I am jealous.

Fellow refugee,

AK

I'll be following your CHF trades

2005-07-19T22:10:00.000-04:00

Good job Aaron, I'm gonna have to figure out a way to get FTP access, I have such little space with my provider it's kind of annoying. I get my charts down to a pretty small size using Windows XP paint. USDJPY already made an Aup, kind of early, I don't know if i'll be messing with that during the Euro session. I'm eastern time, howbout you? Should I rename the Blog to "Moneytec and StrategyFX Refugees" :)

I'm in.

2005-07-19T22:05:00.000-04:00

Paul,

I'm on - I'll give this thing a go here shortly with trade info as I make them. Great idea.

Aaron

Euro Asian Session Part 2 continued trade from last post

2005-07-19T01:38:00.000-04:00

Surprisingly this trade took off, very unusual late in the Asian market for a +35 pip jump, guess the indicators were better than I originally thought, nice to be wrong and make money, maybe I should be wrong more often. At 1.2010 right now, if it jumps above 1.2016, I'll go with the flow and close this out for a profit, if i get any greedier, I'll prob get dumped on. Hope more trades like this happen and I just didn't get lucky.

Late Asian Market Euro July 19, 2005

2005-07-19T00:32:00.000-04:00

Went Short on the Euro during Asian market, by the indicators looks fairly good, we'll just have to see if there's enough momentum to carry through till Euro market session. If anything, I'm loooking for a profit, though it will be pretty small.
May have to stay out of Euro this morning, Asian markets had weak trend brewing. Don't know if the volitility will be low enough to make it safe to enter. We'll see if this trend can run out of gas by 8GMT.
US session may have some openings, but if anything like yesterday 7/18/2005 standing aside may be the best move. Yesterday was a chopfest, and no clear direction even though this Wedneday or Thursday, there's a strong probability that interest rates will be hiked up a few points.
Safe or maybe unsafe to say, that none of the US pairs will have any direction till late thursday, this month overall hasn't been a strong trending month like last 2 month. Last few months the USD has been on a tear and maybe it's time for a bounce and the retraction was inevitable. I'm going to go with what the markets give me even if it's small, till the trend continues or confirms going the other way.

1st Trade USD/JPY

2005-07-18T09:49:00.000-04:00

Observations:

To view chart image correctly, you to point and click at the chart once, then another time. Pointing and clicking once won't sharpen the image enough, don't know if that's a site quirk or my image resolution but that's how it goes.

Circled yellow areas are noteworthy indicator points
-Manually exitied with +42, but more importantly using the trade management rules of DTAFM which i believe are superb, I exited before USD/JPY lost steam, the USD/JPY as you'll see in your charts, retracted and if i stayed the entire day would have been at break even.
- An earlier entry was a loser -10 pips. same signals, just poor volitility. Went with the ACD opening range, still it wasn't looking good, so I bailed out early. Also, the parallels weren't nearly as defined on the control earlier a few of the closes went back into the Bands, should have seen that the pair was still in range.
This drop didn't last long, a retraction near the 61% level(principle 1HR left) was definitely in the plan amazing. Can't ignore these levels, close was actually below 61%, but the retraction was just as significan't on the long side. JPY has been bullish past few weeks, staying short too long is pretty risky.I'll take very hard look at Short positions, hoping this system will give me the correct early warnings.
Still not waiting for close on the control unit before entering, the earlier fakeout prob would have been avoided with a close on a 10min chart instead of a 5min.