The Forex Blogosphere - Discovering the Forex World

Oct 28, 2009 - Riding the D-Train

2009-10-28T15:32:00.004-04:00

Point and Click to Enlarge

This is my hard right edge indicatorless chart. Whether or not this fails we may not know for a few weeks but at this point.
This last week of Oct 2009 we see a turn in the grey zone, an area we expected the top to complete.
Unless something dramatic happens tomorrow and the rest of the week, the downturn has began, and next two weeks we'll be sure when our fractal forms. As long as we don't go higher than 1.5063 next week, we have our top.
The strength of the downward move will first be tested at the 38% level which is a sizable 500 pip move. If we have a good bounce here, the Euro bull move is relatively intact and I'll cover.
If 38% gets taken out with momentum then we expect a test of the 50%. Even if we get to the 50% level, it's a substantial move a good 1000 pips and I wouldn't complain.
This chart alone will let us know how much(if any) the S&P and Dow will crack
Just from viewing this chart, we can at least be cautious not to be Long Euro for now, and take advantage of grabbing some pips on this next wave down.

Penguin Power

2009-04-04T10:06:00.032-04:00

Last news filled NonFarmPayroll week was a no trade week for me so I spent the majority of the time tweeking and twittering with my computers. I normally use 1 desktop and 2 laptops, but as always, that can always change depending on what's working and what's not broken.

Since the early 1990's, when the early versions of the Linux(namely Slackware) operating system came out, I've dabbled with this OS throughout my college days. I was always a Unix junkie programming on Sun computers with C++ and other stuff to do my projects. I'm happy to see how Linux has come so far with their desktops. Back then, and even just a few years ago, the typical PC user just wouldn't be able to use this OS,it was just way too over the top with complexity, and with MS Windows so dominant and user friendly, Linux was just not going to be a player on desktops. I have to admit though that I was a rebel against the Microsoft machine . I hated that most of the software I needed to use was Windows only. I honestly would not use MS Windows if I didn't have to. Though I do respect Apple and Macs very much(Apple and Atari were my first computers in 1980), I'm not a big fan of their prices. So for this short article and rant, I'll just discuss why I keep a Linux powered machine available.

As you can see(point click to enlarge) the desktop is pretty slick. This desktop uses a Windows manager called IceWM. I'm sure Microsoft will eventually weave this idea into their future OS's, they love to borrow great ideas and call it innovation, just ask Mac users. With many Linux desktops, particularly Ice, you can flip through several desktops. This particular session I had 4 desktops. Usually I keep Metatrader on desktop #1 along with News sites. Desktop #2 I'll have non-Fx websites(naughty and nice, haha), desktop #3 I may have music or DVD's when the market is doing nothing and I want to slack off and do nothing.

Let me list a few of the new exciting things that Linux systems have included in the past few years, things that I believe have made it more useful.

Metatrader 4.0 works- Yes hurray! What FX user doesn't like Meta? I've used it for a few years. It's small, compact, fast, used by many brokers, the charting is great, and at least to me, there aren't many other applications better. Meta's only flaw is you can't access it unless you have it installed on the computer you're using, and unless you have a version of Windows. With the developement of Wine though under Linux, some Windows applications do run under Linux. In the past, Wine was very shaky, it could crash at any time, and it made trying to run Windows programs rather annoying. Things have improved though, and I'm glad to say Metatrader works pretty well on my Linux machine, just as it does on my Smartphone. It looks and feels just like the Metatrader on my Windows Vista computer.

So why would I waste time running and installing Linux when I'm going to trade with Metatrader that was made only for Windows? Well here's the other cool thing Linux has come up with the past few years, and why as a once upon a time programmer, I really lost respect for MS Windows. I can make a copy of Metatrader on a Thumbdrive and using a Thumbdrive or a copy of Linux on a CD, I can run Linux on another computer without having to install it.

Here's a simple example/scenario: I'm away on a holiday with a buddy of mine fishing. I don't have my laptop and I love seeing the FX markets with a Metatrader chart. My buddy has his laptop with internet access. Instead of downloading Metatrader and having to install it on my friends computer, I just carry a Thumbdrive (1Gig or 2Gig) with a copy of Linux and Metatrader on it. Try copying Windows XP or Vista on a Thumbdrive. I can store a complete Linux Windows Operating system with my fishing lures, how crazy and cool! The power of Linux is how small it is, and how robust it is compared to MS OS systems, which is just a massive memory eating beast. An almost full featured desktop with many Internet applications can be loaded into just 512MB or RAM. I could even run that laptop without a harddrive because the OS is loaded into memory and doesn't need to access the harddrive to function. So now with just a Thumbdrive, I can run and trade with Metatrader. My desktop is there as well, my Browser has all its FX bookmarks, some of my movies, spreadsheets, anything I can store on that Thumbdrive I can access along with some nice Linux applications. I haven't tried any Metaexperts and autotrading with it, I don't usually need them, and in the past I only used them for fun, I don't doubht they'd work just as well with Linux. I could run Meta with Linux for hours without my problem, no blips, drops or anything disruptive.

My other main beef with MS Windows is Security. Lets be frank, MS OS Securty sucks, my 2 year old nephew can break a Windows system by just deleting a few files, wipe out those files and you have blue screens of death or bootup issues galore. It shouldn't be any surprise that when you surf the web and you get redirected here and there to shadowy websites, you are picked apart by hackers. Yes Linux crashes too and it can have its own quirks, but I'll wager I can go to websites which will inundate a Windows computer with spyware, malware and crapware and almost be bulletproof with my Linux. I'm sure hackers probably can use a virus to lag computer memory,but unlike Windows, with Linux, you just reboot the machine and you're cool, no trace of the virus will be in memory, and most important, the harddrive doesn't get wrecked by the virus, because Linux will be run on RAM, not necessarily the harddrive, and above all, most of the viruses out there were designed for Microsoft, probably by geeks who like me, aren't too fond of MS.

Flash: For ThinkorSwim traders, I'm pleased to say that TOS's fine trading platform also works under Linux, without much tweaking. So here's another great addition made available to the Linux platform, there are probably others, it's just Meta and TOS I use more on a daily basis.

I can go on and on, but in simple terms, I can trade with a non MS Windows machine now thanks to the wonderful developers of Linux, who really developed software for the love of it. The support in the Linux community is great, it's almost like some FX communities, where people put their heads together to try to solve a problem. If you're adventurous with computing like I always have, there's new systems and updates all the time with Linux, every few months, sometimes even weeks, developers put a new desktop sometimes an entire operating system out there to download for free. If you want to wait a few years, say about 10 or so, that's probably when you'll see other Operating systems come around and be more mainstream. I'm just glad that the computing world is becoming more open to alternative operating systems.

The Euro Picture-It's all about Divergence

2009-03-13T18:42:00.005-04:00

Simple chart how I see the short to medium term trend. As mentioned the Bullish Divergence has been forming for close to a month. This pair has been consolidating since with unspectacular moves.
Ideally I would probably stay out of this trade next time. I've been bullish on this pair a few weeks because of this divergence.
Currently holding some Euro longs @ 1.2600 with some lots added along the way.
The cross at 13ema was significant, the next biggie is the 50ema which hangs near 1.300. A good push through and I see a good move upwards.
The weekly chart is particularly telling, it is possibly signaling the end of the strong move down for the Euro. Of course that can take months to confirm. Too many trades till that point so lets keep it simple, and stay cautiously bullish short term, medium-long still slightly bearish. Lets see what the 1.300 reveals and take it from there.

Uncharted Territory Micro Management

2009-02-17T20:32:00.032-05:00

First point, this is posted as a result to some offline email exchange debates I had with an anonymous somewhat newbie trader buddy I know through some forums.
His obsession with funding huge amounts,leveraging to the hilt and wildly punting trades without any technical or fundamentally sound reason is why I just said, screw the chart(even though this has been already charted on this blog) it's about numbers, results and risk management.
This is a live statement, not a churned, curved fitted after the fact , hard right edge demo.
Highlighted are the stats that matter most to me. The position size averages about 4 micro lots, yes there's 2 trades that are 1.5 mini in size, but you can see, there are trades as small as 1 teeny weeny micro that made hundreds of pips, so more bang for your micro bucks.
The statments stats are typical of other statments I can pull out the past 6 months, the most important stats to me I circled and is what I look for in a nice robust methodology.

Back to the important points:

You'll notice that the timeframe of the trades is about a week or so, not a whole lot of trades. You certainly have to pick your points, you don't get more money for trading more, more than likely you'll get clipped especially with high volitility. This particular week wasn't real high vol, but it wasn't a cakewalk either.
The profit factor is usually what my eyes see first, a 3 or 4 is considered great by most people, I'd be happy with 4 and there is no doubht over time a 4 factor will grow your account, a 17, well who wouldn't love that, but realistically, to maintain this 17 factor ain't gonna happen over time, so take a 3 or 4 and be content, and run with it.
Drawdown, to me under 10% is pretty good, I've averaged less than 5%, but again, I don't day trade and am very selective if I choose a breakout.
Notice most trades are shorts, well that was the trend.There were a few countertrend longs that made a pretty profit.
Notice that the Open Trades are Long Countertrend trades. Sometimes you have to take these risks, I personally don't like countertrend. When you're trading against the trend, you have to really have to be on top and be able to bail or scale down, even if you're too early. Bottom line, pile on the position when the trend reveals itself, in a countertrend, you'll know whether you're right in a very short period of time. If you're wrong, it's like jumping off of a train, the momentum will build and you'll get hurt even if u jump off.
I trade CAD, AUD sometimes, but mainly stay with EUR, GBP and JPY. CAD could have some huge moves sometimes, but the trend could flip on a dime and drive you nuts. To me all pairs do not behave the same, I believe this, so trend is what you have to see in any instrument.
Finally, consistancy. Being 50% correct is just not good enough for me, even with a pretty good profit factor, being only right 1/2 the time would just affect the mental aspect of my trading, I'll flip a coin if I want 50/50 odds. I want 70% or at least strive for that, and that's been about my average through many statements Ive cycled through, if i approach 50% then I knowI'm out of wack, whether the account reads profit or not, sometimes I don't even look at the profit, I look at how limited I made the risk, and how I rode the momentum when it revealed itself and confirmed the trend.
100% return account I thought was impossible to achieve, especially a small account, it's possible if you don't give back profits, I've personally seen 300%, but like many good traders you'll hear, the more you make, you still need to be carefull of leverage, notice the margin on these trades, not particularly high.
Ok, that ends my debate rant, so remember to always ask who you debate with to show you the results, not the demos, the predictions and assumptions.
Finally, small ain't always bad, if you can grow a micro, you can grow a mini, and a standard, of course the stress level will be different, so trade according to your blood pressure. If your broker snarls at you for converting your mini to micro, please don't yack at me, haha. Good Luck.

Week 1 Feb 2009 ECB & BOE Non Farm

2009-02-07T08:40:00.006-05:00

A news packed week where we saw good movement in the Pound and Cad. No surprise from the ECB and BOE with respect to rate cuts. Rates came in line with what was forecasted, however unlike the Pound, the Euro really floundered and did not take a dive as you may have expected.
Not being a big fan of trading fundamentals, I think there are 2 important things I've observed. 1) The Euro is moving(though not perfectly) with equity markets. The uncertainty of the Stimulus shows on the charts. We didn't have a definitive outcome as to the details of this package, and as the Euro approached key support levels, the momentum fizzled. 2) Gold had a few days where it lost double digits, however at $900+/ounce, it is suprisingly resilient considering the Dollar has been strong.
Getting back to the technicals, though my medium term bias is still bearish for the Euro, for the short term, at least early next week, there is some upside potential. The 1.2700 handle should have been taken out but held firm, as risk aversion subsides, we'll have a few good days with the Dow and Euro getting a pop upwards, then when reality sinks in and the feel good spending subsides, the Dow and Euro will tank again, great opportunity for selling this rally.
For the week we are near break even, currently holding a small long position on the Euro, I will hold this position until I get a short signal, which usually happens on the 3rd, 4th or 5th day.
Overall a lot of news, some missed opportunity on the Pound and Cad, and a very uneventfull day of waffling for the Euro.

Week 4 Jan 25 2009 Fed Week at the Forex

2009-01-30T11:33:00.004-05:00

Remaining shorts from previous week have been covered today. It's possibly a little too early to exit, but we certainly are entering key support. We're almost where we left off from the beginning of the week with the USD seesawing from bear to bull in a span of 5 days.
It remains to be see whether momentum through the weekend and early next week can breach approaching support.
This month can be summed up as a continuation of the bear move that started last month. The USD has stayed strong against most of the majors because the uncertainty that the markets can't and may not shake off in the near term.
Though not 100% correlated, the equity markets and sentiment will determine when we have a true reversal with EURUSD. For now it's selling the rallies, and if we do have a pop Long, it's taking the profits as soon as we have a bearish signal. Overall, a great profitable month, 11 more to go.

Euro Week 2 Jan 18 2009

2009-01-20T11:29:00.004-05:00

Our dead cat bounce from last Friday appeared to show it self this week. The Eurozone and UK are reeling from horrible banking news, specifically RBS of Scotland.
The pressure on most European currencies continues. AO has navigated the shorts well, and we'll cover when the we see the first color change.
Pay particular attention by the failed bounce confirmed with the up fractal, and the confirmations of AO.
There could be continued pressure on the Eur for the rest of this week. My concern is the momentum of the drop.
Some correction is due, unlike last week, I will not hesitate to take some lots off the table. We recovered a large part of last years bad trades and we're off to a terrific start for 2009.
Updated: covered a very small short position late afternoon, but reentered with similar size, so new entry is currently profitting.
We've clearly popped through the 1.3000 handle finally with authority, 1.2900 is out and we expect some further drop this week if the miserable banking news continues.
I would expect significant consolidation approaching 1.2500's and if this pans out, I'll unwind a good amount of positions, right now it's bad news, and great momentum, and we're on course.

Week 1 New Year 2009

2009-01-09T18:48:00.011-05:00

The 2008 Year End Euro weakness was tested early this week. Geopolitical and fundamental conditions have tested the USD against most majors. Considerable weakness against the Pound.
Though there was volitility, overall sentiment was a weak USD.
The question this week was whether we'd get clues as to where the Dollar would begin the brand new trading year.
This was Non-Farm Payroll week. The expectations were low, if not disastorous from last months job figures. Slightly better than expected numbers slowed down the Dollar weakness from the past 3 days.
It is significant to see how our AO kept us short, despite a rather huge move upwards with Euro even on the 4HR charts. Thus our bias will remain short until a significant failure against next key support levels in the low 1.3000 handle. ainly th downward acceleration from last month has slowed. If/when we approach k
A slow lazy trading week, profitable, consistant though and on track to start the year. Short levels in the low 1.300's handle, we have to keep a close eye on momentum. Further weakness in this momentum and we'll scale our Euro shorts and play it safe.Expectations before next ECB meeting should keep downward pressure on Euro.

Dec 14-19 2008 AUD/USD

2008-12-22T16:56:00.005-05:00

This was a Fed week with lots of movement. Originally my bias was short, but that trade was stopped and even the long reverse trade was nearly stopped out by a whip.
After the Fed meeting, this pair and most majors moved considerably against the USD.
Took profits on the Long reverse trade, but looked to get out on any weakness in momentum.

This grey chart is how the week ended.
We see here the move down was just as abrupt as the move upwards after Fed Day.
Our momentum analysis, was disciplined and more importantly, profitable.

Our current position is short EUR/USD. Direction will not totally be clear until markets are back from holiday, and thin trading conditions are over. Our bias remains bearish until momentum signs change.

Conditions were not as difficult as the previous week, however reversing the losing position was important to contain a large drawdown because of market volitility. A B+ for trade management this week.

Dec 1 2008 Week Filtering

2008-12-05T03:09:00.004-05:00

2 Positions we started off Monday. As with most Mondays, the direction for the week was not clear. There was a good amount of consolidation, prior to any trend developement. With the Aussie, the trend never revealed itself, even after a significant rate cute by the RBA. After a few spikes in both direction, and clearly a loss of momentum, I closed this out with a +24 gain.

Time saved
Pips gained
Great filtration and we move on

Our Cad(loonie) position had a much more positive picture. There was certainly some drawdown in the beginning, but remained bullish on the indicators. This is just a volitile time, and a volitile currency pair. Still when the signs grew more bullish, I added to the small position, and will manage this until I see a clear loss of Momentum.

Outcome: After 400+ pip gain from the start of the week, we trailed this stop by about 85. The pair reversed sharply in the afternoon, and by using the trailing stop we saved at least $200. The key 1.3000 handle just could not hold and like 2 previous tries, really got rejected to the downside. We've taken about +600 pips this week, and from the 2 previous weeks, trading conditions have not been easy to analyze or manage. Pleased to say that we had a good week in a tough market.

Waiting Game - Week Nov 16-21 2008 USD/CAD

2008-11-20T21:29:00.004-05:00

A short lesson in how waiting can save & make money. The USD has been looking for direction with confirmation the past 2 days including late Sunday evening.
The flat MA's, Macd, and the volitile whips were sure fire ways to lose, even with good size stops, the risk was totally unacceptable even for quick profits.
The USDCAD took off like a rocket after this period of consolidation.
On the Daily, my bias was bullish, even with the severe correction 2 weeks ago.
With oil and commodities, bad economic data, uncertainty with financials and bailouts, the CAD was due for some serious pain. In this case and on Thurs in particular, a 300+ point move
Happy to report we took 3/4 of this move and exited while the divergence formed.
This is a good chart to reference, when doing nothing was something, doing nothing meant being rewarded for patience.

Euro Fade of Rally Oct 23-24 2008

2008-10-24T03:18:00.010-04:00

Left Frame 1HR - First sign of weekness was long shadow of top blue candle.
Middle Frame 4HR - Similar sign was long shadow on bear candle.
Right Frame Daily - Blue candle was just a brief rally. Short bias remained, that trend would continue 2nd or 3rd day.
Entry on Left Frame 1HR was similar to Gimee Bar. The mental stop was above the top blue candle above Bollinger band.

The US Dollar strength has continued across the board with the Yen being the only exception. Dollar repatriation and Dollars returning from emerging markets and hedge funds has accelerated the decline of the commodity currencies. Tonight the Aud/Jpy was down as much as 8%.

Currently holding runner at +277 pips after closing 1 lot +180 pips

At the Top for the Drop

2008-09-24T18:36:00.004-04:00

Observations: Late last week the USD weakened considerably with extreme volitility due to the credit crunch, the commodity and Euro currencies benefited in dramatic way. With some resolution and eventual intervention by the US govt, I see a correction coming back to the downtrend, and a strengthening US dollar.

The fall may not be as quick, but I see an upside to the British pound unlikely, so at this point I'm short near the 1.8500 handle. I could possibly have my wave count wrong. Lets see how it plays out, remember can't be accused here of 'Hard right edge' :)

Sept 10-11 Short at the 38

2008-09-11T05:42:00.003-04:00

Shorted at the 38% level with stop just above the 50%
Entered at the breakout and first bear candle around 107.58 exited @ 107.07 for a +51 pips gain.
The USD/JPY has been on a downtrend. The only USD major that has been weak, while Euro and Pound have been on a freefall. Most of the commodity currencies have been pumelled by the Dollar.
Was not the best pair to trade, but trend was read correctly & confirmed by price action and fibs.
There is further downside to this pair, but will avoid buying.
Will possibly sell the next rally again if risk is right and can pick up a tight stop.

Market News Weekend Trade Gap

2008-09-08T08:33:00.004-04:00

Shorted Euro again after upward weekend price gap.
During Asian trading, wasn't certain if the move upwards could be sustained so waited to see whether the trendline could be broken during European open.
Bull candle was engulfed by huge Bear candle at Euro open.
Gap that was key support area was also taken out.
This trade was down as much as -80, however stayed with trade and let trend turn it into a winner +120 pips.

Week of Aug 24-29 2008 Euro

2008-08-30T14:53:00.017-04:00

The Euro continues to range and remain weak, in line with oil.
Resistance levels also holding well as any short term reversal hasn't materialized.
There is a possible chance of a bounce next month if equity markets weaken.
We're holding this trade for 100 ticks and will redraw trendlines as needed.

Update: Trade and trend moving favorably, 25 pips from target. Trend lines were redrawn but entry remained in place.

Entered @ 1.4691 15 pips late but so far so good.

Final Results:

Target Hit for 116 Pips - Euro continued to slide well beyond this target for another 90 pips.

June 18-22 2007 USD Long Term Strength

2007-06-21T10:21:00.000-04:00

The USD strengthening continues this week with no major news releases and nothing aiding the Yen to stop the dollar bull trend. Cross Yen pairs also followed the Yen decline and I've made several Long trades on CAD/JPY pullbacks. The trades are there and the trend intact even when my 1st trade on Monday was near the top.

Bottom line is 4,5, and 6 pair basket sets have performed wonderfully, all profitable with 10%+ gains on margin. Examing the Euro pairs, we're currently in position on the following. Caution though since this entire month has been a sustained rally across most markets, this includes equity markets, despite some triple digit losing days. These pairs need to be evaluated on a market downturn in carry's. On a weekly basis, we'll be opening the same position size with both the Euro zone pairs and over several months of different market conditions, we'll forward test and note the performance, weighing the strength and weaknesses of each collection.

GBP/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD

June 10-15 Bull Trend Continuation

2007-06-14T18:54:00.000-04:00

This week the USD has continued its gain against 3 pairs I'm watching.

USD/JPY - Bullish stable, fairly strong
GBP/USD - Bearish weak, upside move yesterday failed.
EUR/USD - Bearish weak, not as weak as Pound but moving in same direction.

Like 2 weeks ago, the trend has continued to move USD positive with the Yen at near 4 year highs. This weeks news were all favorable to the dollar, moderately weak PPI and long 10 year treasuries gaining to push the USD even further.

As for system portfolios and baskets, we've been profitable this weak and should finish tomorrow with good gains. The small drawdown from last weeks collection was all returned. From this weeks performance, particularly the Yen, we know now that last weak was just a minor correction. We'll have to see if a major correction for the Yen and Yen pairs is in stored since we're in extremely high levels.

The British pound has made attemtps to turn bullish, but the pause in rate hikes last week put an end to any follow through. We're stuck at the 1.970 levels and not going bullish till after 1.9770 or 1.9890 is taken out with momentum. Still holding a long positin from last week. We'll keep this position till the trend turns bullish. It appears that 1.9630 is the temporary major support, at this point we're definitely in a range.

June 3-8 2007 Yen Correction

2007-06-10T02:58:00.000-04:00

As expected most of our trades took a correction earlier in the week with the Yen moving closely with the Equity markets. The markets took a good beating this week with only Friday having a triple digit day on the positive side. It was a good preview of how some of the basket collections would perform had a full scale unwind occured. When the Yen strengthens even the pairs which we wouldn't think would be affected, moved against us significantly.

The 6 pair basket at 3% risk went as low as -105 on the negative side, or approximately -3% equity drawdown using a test accoun. This is still not all that bad. Some of these pairs had 3 positions averaged in. A full scale drop like that of Feb 2007 this 3% could have probably been 10% realistically. By friday we saw a swing to the positive side, with the Pound lagging behind the other pairs. Next week I expect the trend to continue and even if the Yen stalls at the 122.00 level, our 4 and 6 pairs will profit from the positions we scaled in at lower prices.

So to summarize:

4Bonz Basket at 3% per trade was the top performer. It was the quickest to recover from the downturn, and during the yen strengthening, the drawdown was satisfactory, with proper money management.
The JCMac 6 pair at 1.5% equity limit was also satisfactory, nearly hitting -3% drawdown for the week, but coming back to -1%. Much more affected by Yen strengthening, so this has to be scaled properly, and a good idea might be to hedge against pairs on the drop.

This is an interesting experiment that must be watched and tested. These collections will perform flawlessly in a strong market, weak Yen environment. We can test our risk tollerence when there are weeks when it corrects and prepare for a full scale unwind should it occur. Interesting how the Dow and Yen correlated this week, it doesn't seem to be coincidental.

Newbie Note #1

2007-03-12T12:17:00.000-04:00

Who wasn't new at some point in their venture or endeavour. I've been at this game for a few years now. The pitfalls, traps, lessons, and what one trading partner coined it one time "A denizen of thieves". A few snippets I can offer to those who are just getting their feet wet in this market.

Absolutely, positively DO NOT overleverage your account. This is particularly true if you're a swing trader and you're not scalping pips with very, very tight stop losses.
The majority of those starting out in FX want to day trade. While this is certainly a thrill and fun. There's a high probability that whatever you profit in the short term, in the long term you'll give back these profits and then some. So if I don't day trade, how can I have fun making money in FX? I'll elaborate on this in another post. I can tell you though when I gave up the day trades, I became profitable. Do I still make day trades? Hell yeah, but I'll limit my trades to 2 a week. Last week I made 1 trade for $104 bucks. To the dismay of my broker, I didn't do another day trade after Monday, just kept the money :)
This leads to one of the biggest mistakes I made as a new trader. Overtrading.
If you're overtrading, more than likely you don't have a trading plan. I'll make some suggestions and possibly show a few spreadsheets later on on how I manage my risk, if you're a little lazy to make a plan.

Nov 10 2006 Forecasted Cycle Correction

2006-11-10T19:10:00.000-05:00

Divergence was clearly in the picture 10 days ago.
The big dive only happened yesterday when the pair took a 12% drop.
This was the opportunity for the entry today, when it seems the correction was over, and the beginning of the bounce.

October Swing 15 Days

2006-11-04T10:28:00.000-05:00

A great swing and near perfect entry 2 days after the bounce.
The 60SMA has held very well the past few swings.
Contracts were held for approx 15 days with very little drawdown and decent profits.
The frustration was selling the contracts too early. A 2 day pullback occured after selling, but afterwards a bullish surge to near high levels.
This would have resulted in significantly higher profits lasting the entire month of October.
Looking to reenter within the next week in Nov, that wait has been somewhat frustrating, but if the cycles hold, I'm expecting it soon.

Post FMC Session - Asian Market Supp/Res

2006-08-10T00:46:00.000-04:00

FOMC Interest Rates unchaned at 5.25% expected a dive in the USD that didn't happen that session.
This is the 2nd FOMC rate release in the past few months that had this whipsaw effect, that would have taken out any reasonable stop.
The dive in the USD later happened during the Asian market session.
Nearly caught the bottom of this trade, but had 2 bad entries that were placed too far from support lines.
This was somewhat of a risky trade initially due to the solid bear signals of both price and CCI. The 1st clue that the bottom of the move was near is the S1 support line followed closely by the smooth up was trendline, you could also see the double bottom near support. Would have went short if this didn't bounce.
Weighing the fundamentals, a good move up for Non USD pairs shouldn't have been a major surprise. This was more of a Supp/Res Pivot Cam trade, but it's important to note what a good confirmation trigger the CCI was.

Aug 3 2006 - ECB Interest Rate News

2006-08-04T23:16:00.000-04:00

BOE rate news had movement bullish immediately upon release. ECB by contrast accellerated after 8:30am est.
Even with expected rate increase, the USD was under pressure for the entire morning and continued for the rest of the week.

In Range NFP Week

2006-08-01T07:47:00.000-04:00

1 stop hit, 1 closed early for a small loss. 1 +27 and closed at the top of the BBand.
Resistance level has held for 2 good days, and don't expect any real moves till this friday.
Target are going to be no more than +40 intraday
Entry has to be right at bottom Band, since the EUR is still Bullish. There was an attempted reversal on the Short side early Asia session, but that failed, so with the trend buy the dips is still bias.