World Clocks

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Euro Picture-It's all about Divergence



  1. Simple chart how I see the short to medium term trend. As mentioned the Bullish Divergence has been forming for close to a month. This pair has been consolidating since with unspectacular moves.
  2. Ideally I would probably stay out of this trade next time. I've been bullish on this pair a few weeks because of this divergence.
  3. Currently holding some Euro longs @ 1.2600 with some lots added along the way.
  4. The cross at 13ema was significant, the next biggie is the 50ema which hangs near 1.300. A good push through and I see a good move upwards.
  5. The weekly chart is particularly telling, it is possibly signaling the end of the strong move down for the Euro. Of course that can take months to confirm. Too many trades till that point so lets keep it simple, and stay cautiously bullish short term, medium-long still slightly bearish.  Lets see what the 1.300 reveals and take it from there. 

Disclaimer

Foreign exchange transactions carry a high degree of risk and any transaction involving currencies is exposed to, among other things, changes in a country's political condition, economic climate, acts of nature - all of which may substantially affect the price or availability of a given currency.

Speculative trading in the foreign exchange market is a challenging prospect with above average risk. You must therefore carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and appetite for such risk prior to entering this market. Most importantly, do not invest money that you are not in a position to lose.