World Clocks

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Fed Rate Announcement Earlier this Afternoon



  • 2+ weeks of Bearish EUR ended this afternoon with a bang after Fed raised STI 1/4 point. huge spike bar pretty much sums it all.
  • The key 61% retracement ~.2481 just could not be taken out, it was solid support and USD with multiple trys failed every time.
  • Clearly the EUR from the early part of 2006 has been on a Bullish path. With the 2+ week pullback, it's time to look for a bullish continuation.
  • Entered an Asian market pullback Long on EUR, also added small position Short on Swissy. For Eur and US session I'm looking for next Fib levels to be tested, and gauge whether this afternoons sentiment will remain strong.
  • If trend remains intact, I expect a much bigger move being Long on EUR as opposed to Short the past few weeks.
  • Overall pleased with gains last few weeks, over 150+ pips on 1 trade 40+ pips on added positions. This through many many days of heavy chop and whips, this week up until today being totally miserable for trading.
  • Glad to see gains returning as well on equity positions, more relieved about that than FX.

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Bull reversal - Short Pullback with ZLR


Entered short EUR a little late, but objective was just to add to a Short position I've been holding for 2 weeks. Yesterday the EUR was clearly on a Bull run and pulled back deep early this morning. Early in the EUR session finally hit resistance @ 1.2678 and the trend was on.

Confirmations for short as anotated on chart. WCCI gave some reassurance since I was a little hesitant late yesterday to go short. The best scenario: have as many short positions on EUR till next weeks Fed meeting, make a few $$ in interests, if bear run continues after Fed meeting, more big gains ahead, otherwise, tighten stops, cover short and enjoy the profit. Holding @ +38 pips

Friday, June 09, 2006

US Trade Deficit Report


  • After news, 25-30 pip whips, key support of 1.2600 seems to be holding just happens to be 50 day MA. Good chance of the EUR bouncing if this doesn't get taken out next time around.
  • Still holding short position from yesterday currently +108 pips. May scale down the position today and hold small position this weekend.
  • This news release is a tricky one to trade, I've seen price come back near open after surging either direction, a reasonable size TP is the way to go, not a trade you want to hold long if you're not already in one.
  • Trend 5

Thursday, June 08, 2006

ECB Interest Rate Announement


  • Big moves this morning, could be bigger if Dailys support gets taken out.
  • +62 Pips already locked, intially Short@ 1.2738 holding 1 contract, possibly rest of this week.

BOE Interest Rate Announcement



  • Safe to say this trade was whipsawed. The downtrend this past week has been difficult to reverse.
  • There were key support levels that may have changed conditions, but when they were broken after 13:15gmt, all bets were off and the bottom fell out.
  • Long Trade stopped out for small -15 loss

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Short GBP ZLR


  • No major news releases.

Friday, June 02, 2006

May 2006 Non-Farm Payrolls Released


  • Job growth faltered in May, with employers boosting payrolls by just 75,000 forecasted figure was 110K.
  • Good volitility at 13:30gmt but unlike last month tapered off significantly by 9am. The 75% rule here at 2/3 the contract size was a good move
  • The 1/3 runner was taken out before 14:30gmt
  • Good morning overall Trend 4

Disclaimer

Foreign exchange transactions carry a high degree of risk and any transaction involving currencies is exposed to, among other things, changes in a country's political condition, economic climate, acts of nature - all of which may substantially affect the price or availability of a given currency.

Speculative trading in the foreign exchange market is a challenging prospect with above average risk. You must therefore carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and appetite for such risk prior to entering this market. Most importantly, do not invest money that you are not in a position to lose.